It’s been a matter of faith for months that the current Oscar season has brought one of the most wide-open races in years. And when it comes to which film will win Best Picture, that’s true: At this point, as many as six films have a plausible chance to win the top award.
But if you’re talking about what’s going to be nominated, things aren’t quite so unpredictable. A consensus has formed around eight of the 10 Best Picture nominees, four of the five Best Actor ones, four of the five for Best Director …
And yet, who really knows? The Academy is much bigger than it was a decade ago, with 9,905 voting members as of December, and it’s far more international.